By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and the wider crypto market showed mixed signals on Tuesday, with the largest cryptocurrency briefly touching $70,000 on reports a ceasefire in Iran was proposed.
The hesitation comes a day after bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest inflows since late February, even as the market pays close attention to the harsh macro backdrop. Bitcoin ETF investors’ demand suggests they see the current price action as an accumulation opportunity.
Binance Research found earlier this month that bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, turned strongly negative after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. ETF-driven institutional flows tend to be more forward-looking, positioning themselves for expected policy moves. That is, institutional capital may be accumulating ahead of expected easing of monetary policy.
Bitfinex Alpha described the market as range-bound but fragile, with weak organic demand, slower corporate treasury buying and options positioning that turns more unstable below $68,000 as downside protection grows.
Macro pressure remains relevant too. Brent crude remains above $110 a barrel as the looming deadline U.S. President Donald Trump imposed on Iran for a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz keeps investors on edge.
The market currently sees little room for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in the near future given the expected inflation rise caused by higher energy costs. U.S. inflation data coming in later this week will be critical. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- April 7, 07:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly (est. 10K)
- April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for February est 04% (Prev. 0%)
- April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee to participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- April 7: Kamino and xStocks to host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
- Balancer DAO is voting across two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, routing all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends April 7.
- CoW DAO is voting to fix its solver rewards budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends April 7.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $69,149.83 (24hrs: -1.05%)
- ETH is down 0.98% at $2,128.41(24hrs: -1.31%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.13% at 1,946.75 (24hrs: -1.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.74%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0049% (5.3327% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.15% at 99.83
- Gold futures are unchanged at $4,688.40
- Silver futures are down 0.3% at $72.63
- Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,429.56
- Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
- FTSE is up 0.33% at 10,470.51
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.98% at 5,748.35
- DJIA closed on Monday up 0.36% at 46,669.88
- S&P 500 closed up 0.44% at 6,611.83
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.54% at 21,996.34
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.22% at 33,181.97
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.12% at 3,656.10
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.325%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,657.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,373.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 46,976.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.04% (-0.08%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03077 (0.54%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.40
- Total fees: 2.18 BTC / $151,084
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,120 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.6%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s dollar price in weekly candle for the past several years.
- The measure is still trading around the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,317 while the RSI continues to grind up after bottoming out at 27 a few weeks ago.
- With no clear bearish RSI divergences, the next core level to monitor is $73,000 for any confirmed upward momentum
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $174.79 (+1.94%), -0.56% at $173.82 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $92.15 (+2.09%), +0.18% at $92.32
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.28 (+3.63%), +0.11% at $18.30
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.35 (+2.69%), unchanged in pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.85 (+1.61%), -0.55% at $8.80
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.52 (+5.13%), -0.52% at $13.45
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.29 (+0.37%), -0.18% at $16.26
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.10 (+3.53%), -0.33% at $9.07
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $36.70 (+2.63%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.33 (+3.77%), +0.63% at $6.37
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $127.69 (+6.56%), -0.71% at $126.79
- Strive (ASST): closed at $10.12 (+3.79%), +0.30% at $10.15
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.38 (+3.07%), +0.12% at $6.39
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.01 (+3.59%), -0.99% at $1.00
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (+1.79%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $471.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.41 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $120.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
