The ongoing conflict in the Middle East may be creating new strategic space for China to expand its influence across Asia, at a time when the United States remains heavily engaged in conflict elsewhere, according to a report.According to the report, the diversion of attention and resources of the United States to the Middle East may reduce its operational focus in the Indo-Pacific region, where Washington maintains key security commitments and partnerships.
The Iraq War provides an early example of this trend. Between 2003 and 2008, as Washington’s strategic focus remained on Iraq, China expanded its presence in the South China Sea with limited external response, as per the report.The report also noted that a similar pattern was observed during the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan. In 2021, as Washington oversaw the end of its military presence, Taiwan reported more than 900 sorties by the People’s Liberation Army into its Air Defence Identification Zone, the highest recorded in a year. These actions formed part of an approach that applies pressure below the threshold of escalation, calibrated to the prevailing strategic environment.The global deployment of US military assets remains limited and spread across multiple regions. A carrier strike group includes about 7,500 personnel and air capabilities and forms part of the country’s conventional deterrence.When such assets are deployed to regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean or the Red Sea, they are not available in the Western Pacific. The Indo-Pacific strategy, including frameworks such as AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, relies on forward deployment and signalling. Changes in deployment levels are tracked by other countries and can reportedly affect the regional balance.The impact of these developments is visible around Taiwan and other areas along China’s periphery. In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command has conducted exercises that include blockade simulations, amphibious drills, and coordinated air and sea operations, which officials have linked to external developments.Crossings of the Taiwan Strait median line have also increased in frequency, reducing its role as a buffer. Responses have largely been limited to formal protests, contributing to a shift in the situation over time.Taipei has also raised concerns about China using the Middle East conflict for “cognitive warfare” targeting Taiwan. This includes AI-generated online videos circulating after the conflict that claimed the island faced a “devastating” energy supply crisis, according to an internal government memo reviewed by Reuters this month.Actions by China have remained below the threshold of a wider conflict, but taken together, they have altered the strategic environment over time.The report notes that these developments coincide with periods when global attention is focused on other regions, including the Middle East, leading to reduced focus on the Indo-Pacific and limiting immediate responses to incremental changes.They add that this reflects a broader pattern in which China operates during periods of lower international scrutiny, using a series of calibrated steps rather than isolated actions.
