The crypto market is at a critical point on Wednesday, with bitcoin priced close to the $75,000 level of support after failing to break through $78,000 on Tuesday.
Ether’s (ETH) chart tells a similar story. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was rejected off $2,150 on Tuesday, and fell toward the $2,000 support level. It bounced off $2,050 at 05:30 UTC on Wednesday and was recently trading around $2,080.
AI tokens RENDER, FET and NEAR gave back much of their gains from Tuesday’s rally, falling between 1% and 3% since midnight UTC.
The U.S. stock market continued to diverge from crypto on Wednesday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both hitting record highs after adding about 0.3%.
Crucially, bitcoin is now below Bitmine (BMNR) Chairman Tom Lee’s line in the sand at $76,000, which, he said, would signal the end of a bear market if BTC were to end the month above that level.
Derivatives positioning
- Crypto futures volume jumped 54% to $201 billion in 24 hours, while liquidations surged 87%. The massive percentage gains largely reflect the market waking up after an extended U.S. holiday lull rather than a structural shift in activity levels.
- Bitcoin dropped 1% over the last 24 hours as open interest climbed to 740K BTC from 704K BTC, a combination that typically confirms a price downtrend. The negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) shows traders are aggressively shorting via market orders while funding rates remain neutral.
- Ether’s open interest hit a record high 15.57 million ETH alongside negative CVD. It may be that traders are shorting contracts in anticipation of deeper price loss. This follows a technical breakdown of the bullish trendline that has supported the market since February, opening the door for deeper losses.
- Open interest in ZEC futures dropped for a third day to 2.30 million tokens as the price slid toward $564. The simultaneous drop in both price and open interest suggests that earlier bullish bets are being closed out rather than new short positions being opened.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) rose nearly 3% to 37.35%, marking its first gain in 10 days and a bounce from yearly lows. A continued rise would signal that the market is finally paying up for protection against a potential price swoon.
- Deribit data shows the $55,000 September put is the most traded contract of the past 24 hours. It represents a bet that bitcoin will fall significantly by the end of that month. Most activity has been clustered around downside protection at various strikes between $70,000 and $76,000.
Token talk
- The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) fell 2.2% since midnight UTC following losses across the AI sector. The DeFI Select Index (DFX) also struggled on Tuesday, losing 1.5%.
- One bright point is hyperliquid (HYPE). The perpetual exchange’s native token formed a new record high this week and is continuing to show strength on Wednesday, surging by 5.5% since midnight UTC.
- There was also a notable gain for monero (XMR), up by 5% on Wednesday as it retests Monday’s high around $400.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator also increased to 36/100, demonstrating relative strength among a few select altcoins despite broader market weakness.
